Posts on finance

Sector rotation charts promise a map of the business cycle laid over the stock market. The taxonomy and the economic logic hold up well. The timing is where the evidence gets uncomfortable.

A high dividend yield can mean a company is generating serious cash, or it can mean the share price is falling faster than the payout. Here's how to tell the difference.

Your card number isn't in your phone. Here's what a digital wallet actually stores, why a stolen token is useless on its own, and why merchants care about tokens for reasons that have nothing to do with security.

For years, whether a token was a security came down to a lawyer's read of a 1946 orange grove case. In 2026 the SEC finally published a taxonomy, and then proposed rules to go with it.

The SPIVA scorecards are the most-cited evidence in the passive-versus-active debate. Here is what they actually measure, why survivorship and persistence do more work than any single year's headline, and where the argument gets genuinely interesting.

On-chain lending replaces credit checks with collateral, loan officers with a utilization curve, and collections with bots. Here is what each of those swaps actually costs you.

Most trading education obsesses over entries and indicators. The arithmetic says how much you put on matters more than where you got in, and the math is less forgiving than it looks.

Card fraud systems score every transaction in well under a second, but the legitimate orders they wrongly reject cost merchants far more than the fraud they catch. A look at risk scoring, 3-D Secure, and the error nobody instruments.

The document-plus-selfie onboarding flow every fintech copied is quietly failing. Here is how identity verification actually works, why injection attacks broke it, and what the layered replacement looks like.